A recent survey indicates that President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is in the lead in the upcoming Brazilian elections. The interviews with 3,816 Brazilian adults, conducted by Datafolha / Folha de Sao Paulo on Sept. 11 and Sept. 12, 2006 shows Lula, the incumbant candidate of the Worker’s Party, ( PT) , is 20% ahead of his closest rival, Geraldo Alckmin of the Brasilian Social Democracy Party ( PSDB), as the first round of the presidential elections on October 1, 2006 approaches. If no candidate wins more than 50 per cent of all cast ballots, a run-off will take place on Oct. 29.
Lula was elected in 2002, and is running for another 4 year term with his current vice president José Alencar of the Brazilian Republican Party ( PRB). Their parties are part of a coalition, "The Strength of the People" ( A Força do Povo) which also includes the Communist Party , and the informal support of the Liberal and Socialist Parties. His re-election campaign slogan reads: Lula again with the strenght of the people.
Lula and his party spent most of 2005 embroiled in the Mensalão corruption scandal, i n which a Labour Party member accused members of the Liberal Party and the Progressive Party of recieving payments of up to $12,000 U.S. from the government in exchange for support in the legislative branch. No evidence has backed the allegations yet.
On Sept. 13, Alckmin took part in a televised debate with currently less popular candidates, Heloisa Helena (PSOL) and Cristovam Buarque (PDT) . Lula did not attend, though a chair was left open for him. His absence lead to criticism from Alckmin: "It’s a pity that candidate Lula, who made enormous promises four years ago, most of which haven’t been fulfilled, and who had five cabinet members indicted or charged by police, didn’t come to the debate just so that he won’t have to explain these issues." As well as Helena and Buarque, who are both running on platforms to the left of Lula‘s Worker’s Party, also criticised his absense as cowardice and a lack of respect.
Lula has been denounced for moving to the center and haunted by the Mensalão scandal, but his popularity is buouyed by growth in the Brazilian economy, and by social programs such as the World Bank supported Program Bolsa Familia, which is giving subsidies to poor families in agricultural regions in the north-east. According to Tiago Cavalcanti, an economist at the Federal University of Pernambuco, the program is "reaching 11 million families or 44 million people – that’s 20% of the population of Brazil. So it’s huge, and it’s going to be very difficult to beat Lula in this election."
|
Sept. 12 |
Sept. 5 |
Aug. 29 |
|
|
Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT) |
50% |
51% |
50% |
|
Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB) |
28% |
27% |
27% |
|
Heloisa Helena (PSOL) |
9% |
9% |
10% |
|
Cristovam Buarque (PDT) |
1% |
1% |
1% |